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- Chinese March data confirm turnaround - ABN AMRO
Chinese March data confirm turnaround - ABN AMRO
Arjen van Dijkhuizen, a senior economist at ABN AMRO, notes that China’s March activity data published over the past weeks clearly pointed to an improving momentum, compared to the weakness seen in late 2018.
- Industrial production growth surged to 8.5% yoy (Jan-Feb: 5.3%) - with manufacturing output particularly strong, - although this number is likely impacted somewhat by Lunar New Year effect (with a sharp drop in March 2018).
- Fixed asset investment also accelerated further, rising to 6.3% yoy (from 6.1% in Jan-Feb). That was supported primarily by a further improvement of state-led investment, a result of fiscal stimulus measures.
- Retail sales growth surged to 8.7% yoy (Jan/Feb: 8.2%). The March PMIs published some weeks ago showed a clear uptick from February; the composite PMIs of both NBS and Caixin jumped by 1.5-2 points.
- These strong activity data (particularly industrial production) also caused a jump in Bloomberg’s monthly GDP estimate, to 7.92% yoy in March (Feb: 6.63%), the highest number since December 2012.
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