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  • BoE forecast shows inflation to peak at 2.82 pct in q4 2017 (feb peak forecast 2.75 pct in q2 2018), based on market interest rates
Market news
11.05.2017, 11:06

BoE forecast shows inflation to peak at 2.82 pct in q4 2017 (feb peak forecast 2.75 pct in q2 2018), based on market interest rates

  • Market interest rate assumption based shows first rate hike fully priced in for q4 2019 (feb forecast q1 2019)

  • Shows inflation in two years' time at 2.20 pct (feb forecast 2.56 pct), based on market interest rates

  • Expects q2 gdp growth of +0.4 pct qq, expects q1 gdp growth to be revised up to +0.4 pct from +0.3 pct

  • "Some" MPC members would need relatively little upside news on growth or inflation to consider voting for tighter policy

  • Policy outlook depends on weak pound boosting cpi but not longer-term inflation expectations, modest pay growth near-term to pick up significantly

  • Consumption to recover once wages pick up, in short-term will be offset by better net trade and investment

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