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- Forces likely to keep euro subdued near term - CIBC
Forces likely to keep euro subdued near term - CIBC
"Although Eurozone growth has accelerated recently, there's reason to remain cautious on the currency in the near-term.
With the economy only recently eclipsing its pre-crisis high-water mark, the material output gap will keep monetary policy stimulative for some time. The rise of populism will also weigh on the euro ahead of a number of key elections in the region this year, and Greek debt negotiations are making headlines again.
Relative to its pre-crisis level, the Greek economy is now down by a magnitude similar to the US during the worst of the Great Depression. Greece's plight has been more protracted, in part because Eurozone monetary policy remains too restrictive for the hardest hit countries. If debt negotiations heat up further, expect renewed speculation as to whether Greece would be better off leaving the union".
CIBC targets EUR/USD at 1.04 by the end of Q1.
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