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- Credit Agricole: Limited Room For ECB To Extend Dovish Expectations; EUR/USD A Buy
Credit Agricole: Limited Room For ECB To Extend Dovish Expectations; EUR/USD A Buy
The EUR has been broadly range-bound after rebounding from this year's lows. The main focus should turn to this week's ECB monetary policy announcement as a currency driver, especially as political uncertainty is unlikely to increase further in the short-term. As reported by "La Republica" yesterday morning Renzi may press for early elections in January/February next year in return for staying in power until then. However, according to President Mattarella early elections are technically not feasible because changes would be needed to the country's election law. We remain of the view that EUR/USD is a buy. Limited room of the ECB exceeding dovish expectations coupled with speculative short positioning close to multi-week extremes should keep the risk of further position squaring upside intact. This is especially true should the Fed fail to consider a more than anticipated hawkish forward guidance.
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