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- Bank of America Merrill expects NFP at 170K
Bank of America Merrill expects NFP at 170K
Recent labor market data has continued to show solid improvement. We expect the trend to continue in November with 170,000 in nonfarm payroll growth, a slight deceleration from the 176,000 average over the prior three months. We expect 165,000 in private payroll growth, with a modest 5,000 expansion in government payrolls.
We expect the labor force participation rate to remain at 62.8% and the unemployment rate to also remain unchanged at 4.9%. We expect a softer 0.2% mom gain in average hourly earnings after the strong 0.4% mom pop last month, leaving the year-over-year rate at 2.8%.
This shows continued improvement in wage growth, but still a less-thanhealthy 3%-4% pace of growth. Remember that the strong gain in average hourly earnings last month was concentrated in three categories: mining, utilities and information technology. We think that there is propensity for a modest reversal given the magnitude of the increase in all three. There are some risks of a weaker print and/or a downward revision to September wage growth. We expect average weekly hours to remain unchanged at 34.4.
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