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- ECB: Inflation expectations have been revised marginally down for 2016 and 2018
ECB: Inflation expectations have been revised marginally down for 2016 and 2018
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Inflation expectations have been revised marginally down for 2016 and 2018, but are unchanged for 2017. Longer-term inflation expectations are unchanged at 1.8%.
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Real GDP growth expectations have been revised up for 2016, but down for 2018 and further ahead.
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Unemployment rate expectations have been revised down.
Respondents to the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the fourth quarter of 2016 report average point forecasts for inflation in 2016, 2017 and 2018 of 0.2%, 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. This implies unchanged forecasts for 2017 and slight downward revisions, by 0.1 percentage point, for 2016 and 2018. Average longer-term inflation expectations (for 2021) remain unchanged at 1.8%. The expected strong pick-up in headline inflation between 2016 and 2017 reflects to a large extent the expected profile of oil price dynamics, while underlying inflation is expected to pick up at a more gradual pace.
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