Asian session: The dollar pared a decline against the euro

21:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Productб q/q IV quarter +0.8% +0.6% +0.3%

21:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product, y/y IV quarter +1.9% +2.2% +1.8%

22:10 Australia RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks 0

23:50 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance, bln February -612.8 -342.5 -313.2

02:30 China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (preliminary) March 49.6 48.1

The dollar pared a decline against the euro after a private report signaled manufacturing may shrink in China and before U.S. data forecast to show initial jobless claims dropped, boosting demand for U.S. assets. The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to 48.1 in March. That’s the lowest level in four months and compares with a final reading of 49.6 for February. Figures below 50 indicate contraction. New applications for unemployment insurance payments in the U.S. probably fell by 1,000 to 350,000 in the period ended March 17, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists before the Labor Department releases its data today. That would be the lowest since March 2008.

The yen gained after Japan posted an unexpected trade surplus for February.  Japan’s exports exceeded imports by 32.9 billion yen ($395 million) in February, the finance ministry said today in Tokyo. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had predicted a shortfall of 120 billion yen. Exports fell by 2.7 percent from a year earlier, less than the 6.5 percent drop projected by analysts. The yen’s 14-day relative strength index versus the dollar declined over the past two days after being above the 70 level that some traders see as a sign an asset may reverse direction for more than a week.

New Zealand’s dollar slid to a one-week low after its economy grew less than economists estimated. New Zealand’s gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it increased a revised 0.7 percent, the country’s statistics bureau said today in Wellington. The median projection by economists was for growth of 0.6 percent.

EUR/USD: during the Asian session the pair gain.

GBP/USD: during the Asian session the pair traded in a range $1.5855-$1.5880.

USD/JPY: during the Asian session the pair traded in range Y83.15-Y83.45.

Thursday morning in Europe sees the release of the flash manufacturing and Services PMIs for March for the core-European countries, including France at 0658GMT, Germany at 0728GMT and then the main EMU data later in the morning at 0758GMT. UK data sees retail sales at 0930GMT. More EMU data follows at 1000GMT with the release of industrial orders data. At 1400GMT, the Belgian BNB Business Confidence data is due, which is expected to improve slightly, to a reading of -6.5. US data starts at 1230GMT when initial jobless claims are expected to rise only slightly to 355,000 in the March 17 employment survey week after falling 14,000 in the March 10 week. US data continues at 1400GMT with the FHFA Home Price Index and also the latest Leading Indicator data. At 2000GMT, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans presents a paper, "Effects of FOMC Forward Guidance," at the Brookings Institution where he will be on a panel. Late US data sees the 2030GMT release of money supply data. Finally, at 2330GMT, New York Fed President William Dudley speaks at the Harvard Law School's Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century.