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Forex: Monday's review
IEA monthly oil market report is due, at 0800GMT.
UK data at 0830GMT includes inflation and trade data as well as CLG House Prices. Consumer Price Inflation is expected to show price increases persisting at well over double the 2% official target. The BoE has said it expects CPI to approach a 5% annual rate once rising utility bills take their toll but that is not expected to be seen until the September data are released next month. Median forecasts for Tuesday look for CPI to come in at 0.6% m/m, 4.5% y/y with core-CPI at 0.6% m/m, 3.1% y/y. Trade is due out the same day and could well reflect the clear drop off in demand and orders from overseas seen in the recent Markit/CIPS PMI survey of the sector.
US data starts at 1230GMT with the Import/Export Price Index. Increases in import prices may be moderate due to only a small change in petroleum costs, and smaller increases in items like foods and motor vehicles. Export prices should benefit from favorable exchange rates and demand for agricultural products.The two earliest monthly indexes for consumer confidence include the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index for September at 1400GMT and could provide a strong hint about the direction of the preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday. Finally, at 1800GMT, the US Treasury is expected to post a $130.0 bn budget gap in August.
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