Forex: Thursday's review

The U.S. Congress Republicans and Democrats are still locked in a stalemate on raising the debt ceiling.

Even believing there will be a last-minute deal on the debt ceiling, the head of China's Dagong rating agency still plans to cut its U.S. rating soon. He said that the only question will be the size of the move.

Dollar fell after statement by Richmond Fed Lacker about US economy.

The euro rising against the dollar after a huge drop, which was triggered as yesterday rating agency S&P downgraded the credit rating of Greece to 'CC' from 'CCC' with negative outlook. The downgrade of Greece by 2 notches takes it to the same level as Moody's Ca rating (developing outlook).

The kiwi slightly dropped against the dollar. The currency rose toward a record high after the central bank said it will likely remove the half-percentage-point “insurance” cut in the target lending rate made after a February earthquake. But the rise was curbed as Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard signaled that strength of New Zealand’ dollar may reduce the extent of rate increases.

Japan yen also went up as US President and the senators still haven’t reached an agreement on raising the US national debt..

EUR/USD: the pair shown low at $1.4250 area then grown and finished session in $1.4320 area.

GBP/USD: yesterday the pair restored in $1.6370 area.

USD/JPY: the pair decreased in Y77.70 area.

The EMU flash HICP data for June at 0900GMT is expected to hold at 2.7% y/y.

US data starts with the much-awaited GDP data at 1230GMT, released along with the latest Employment Cost Index and ISM-NY Business Index. The advance estimate for second quarter GDP is for a 1.9% rate of growth, the same as in the previous quarter. PCE is expected to post a smaller increase than in the previous quarter, but stronger

non-residential fixed investment and a smaller drag from trade and government spending should provide some offset. Residential investment is expected to again be a modest subtraction. The chain price index is forecast to rise 2.0% in the quarter, the same as in the first quarter.
The Employment Cost Index is expected to rise 0.5% in second quarter after the 0.6% rise in the previous quarter.

Data continues at 1345GMT when the Chicago PMI is forecast to hold steady at 61.1 in July. At 1355GMT, the preliminary Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to revised up to a reading of 64.0 in July.

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