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Barclays Capital on EGYPT
The market talks how to trade events in Egypt from a risk perspective.
Barclays Capital strategists note that while the demonstrations by activists (asking for an end to Pres Mubarak's 30-year reign) "appear leaderless at present" the movement may become more organized if Nobel Peace Price winner Mohammad El Baradei (ex-director general of IAEA) takes charge.
In terms of being a US ally, "Egypt is a key partner in regional counter-terrorism and peace keeping and is seen as an essential bulwark against Iranian expansion in the Middle East," they say.
With Pres Mubarak's health in question, "there is real concern that if Mubarak were to die suddenly, with the public mood so sour, the security situation could spiral out of control," the strategists say.
In addition, another sudden run-up in food prices, would likely exacerbate
the situation.
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