U.S. stock-index futures fell on Wednesday, correcting after recent rally that pushed the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to record levels .
Today's Change, points
Today's Change, %
(company / ticker / price / change ($/%) / volume)
ALTRIA GROUP INC.
Amazon.com Inc., NASDAQ
American Express Co
AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP
Cisco Systems Inc
Citigroup Inc., NYSE
Exxon Mobil Corp
FedEx Corporation, NYSE
Ford Motor Co.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., NYSE
General Electric Co
General Motors Company, NYSE
Home Depot Inc
International Business Machines Co...
Johnson & Johnson
JPMorgan Chase and Co
Merck & Co Inc
Procter & Gamble Co
Starbucks Corporation, NASDAQ
Tesla Motors, Inc., NASDAQ
The Coca-Cola Co
Twitter, Inc., NYSE
UnitedHealth Group Inc
Verizon Communications Inc
Wal-Mart Stores Inc
Walt Disney Co
Yandex N.V., NASDAQ
Bankers Association (MBA) reported on Wednesday the mortgage application volume
in the U.S. decreased 0.6 percent in the week ended November 27, following a 3.9
percent climb in the previous week.
According to the report, refinance applications declined 4.6 percent, while applications to purchase a home surged 9.0 percent.
Meanwhile, the average fixed 30-year mortgage rate remained unchanged at 2.92 percent, a survey low.
“Purchase activity continued to show impressive year-over-year gains, with both the conventional and government segments of the market posting another week of growth,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. “Housing demand remains strong, and despite extremely tight inventory and rising prices, home sales are running at their strongest pace in over a decade.”
report prepared by Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) and Moody's Analytics
showed on Wednesday the U.S. private employers added 307,000 jobs in November. This
was the lowest reading since July.
Economists had expected an increase of 410,000.
The October number saw an upward revision to 404,000 from the originally reported 365,000.
“While November saw employment gains, the pace continues to slow,” noted Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. “Job growth remained positive across all industries and sizes.”
|10:00||Eurozone||Producer Price Index, MoM||October||0.4%||0.2%||0.4%|
|10:00||Eurozone||Producer Price Index (YoY)||October||-2.3%||-2.4%||-2%|
GBP fell against its major rivals in the European session on Wednesday as the outcome of the UK-EU negotiations on a post-Brexit trade deal still remains uncertain.
The UK and the EU's trade negotiators continue to engage in intense talks but differences on the key issues - fisheries, state aid, and future dispute resolution - still remain. An EU diplomat told Reuters that the block's chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier said the coming days would be decisive for getting a trade deal with the UK but did not set a specific deadline. “He was neither pessimistic nor optimistic. He was saying there’s been a lot of movement. Still, some stuff to be done... level playing field, fisheries,” the source said. In another article, Reuters reported that the EU’s member states urged Barnier not to be rushed into agreeing on an unsatisfactory trade deal with Britain just because the deadline for a deal is looming. The UK's transition period expires on December 31.
However, further declines in the pound were limited by news that Britain became the world’s first country that approved the Pfizer/BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine. The U.K.'s Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) agreed to the emergency use of the pair's COVID-19 vaccine less than a month after the results of the final clinical trial were released. According to the UK’s Health Secretary Matt Hancock, vaccinations could start as early as next week.
Commenting on vaccine approval, the UK's PM Boris Johnson said that the coronavirus vaccines would allow to reclaim lives and get the economy moving again, but added that it's important that people did not get their hopes up too soon about the speed of the vaccine rollout.
FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, suggests that the recent price action in the precious metal hints at the idea that a strong contention area could have emerged around $1,760 per ounce.
“Gold has sold off to, tested and reversed from the 1760/1765.61 May high and 50% retracement. We view the market as having based here, but note that this support is further reinforced by the 1733.26 55 week ma.”
“Rallies will find initial resistance at 1850 (the November low), just to alleviate immediate downside pressure. This guards the 55 day ma at 1910.90 and the mid-September high at 1973.8, for a rally to the 78.6% retracement at 2025 which guards the target band of 2070/2088. This is a combination of Fibonacci extensions and Elliott wave counts.”
Salesforce (CRM) reported Q3 FY 2021 earnings of $1.74 per share (versus $0.75 per share in Q3 FY 2020), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $0.75 per share.
The company’s quarterly revenues amounted to $5.420 bln (+20% y/y), beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.248 bln.
The company also issued upside guidance for Q4 FY 2021 and Q1 FY 2022, projecting revenues of a respective $5.665-$5.675 bln (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.53 bln) and $5.680-$5.715 bln (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $5.65 bln). For the full FY 2022, it sees revenues of $25.45-$25.55 bln (versus analysts’ consensus estimate of $24.5 bln). This includes approximately $600 mln related to the acquisition of Slack Technologies (WORK).
CRM fell to $228.35 (-5.39%) in pre-market trading.
According to a senior Brussels diplomat, Barnier was neither pessimistic nor optimistic. He said there had been a lot of movement, but "still some stuff to be done... level playing field, fisheries".
In another article, Reuters reported that Barnier told EU member states’ envoys that talks on a trade deal with the UK were reaching “a make-or-break moment”. He also said that negotiations remained snagged on fishing rights in British waters, ensuring fair competition guarantees and ways to solve future disputes.
FXStreet reports that Karen Jones, Team Head FICC Technical Analysis Research at Commerzbank, notes AUD/USD risks a probable correction lower in the near-term.
“AUD/USD continues to falter on its initial test of the .7413 September high, there is some divergence of the daily RSI and we would allow for a near term pullback. We also have a 13 count on the 240 minute chart AND TD resistance at .7410/20. This suggests we may well hold the initial test of the early September peak at .7413 and we are alert to some profit taking there. It guards the long term Fibonacci retracements at .7574 and .7639.”
Bert Colijn, a Senior Economist at ING, notes that big revisions to Eurozone jobs data show that unemployment peaked in July and has since been trending downwards.
"Today’s Eurozone unemployment data show massive revisions for the last few months which reveals a declining unemployment rate since July, instead of an upward inclining trend. The peak was seen in July at 8.7%, moving down to 8.4% in October."
"The largest changes to the data came from France where the July rate was revised up from 6.6% in September to 9.4% now. German data remained unchanged, while Spain and Italy also saw a change in trend for recent months, although smaller than France. The differences may relate to definition issues related to short-time work, which muddies the waters about who is employed and who isn’t."
"The unemployment rate remains a crucial unknown in the outlook for 2021. While the harm done so far seems to be incredibly mild given the scale of the crisis, short-time work schemes still mask some of the harsh labour market realities. Therefore, it seems unlikely that eurozone unemployment will hit double-digits with the start of the recovery around the corner thanks to the quick progress made on vaccines. That brings some upside risk to the economic recovery for 2021 for the job market."
FXStreet reports that economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann reviewed the latest RBA meeting (December 1).
“The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), at its final monetary policy meeting of the year, decided to retain the current policy settings.”
“Our view remains for the RBA to hold off (for now) in regards to bringing the policy rate into negative territory. If the need for more easing arises, more Quantitative Easing (QE) and yield curve control are likely to follow first. We also see fiscal policy continuing to play a key role in stimulating the economy and expect that the government will need to do more.”
Reuters reports that a government official said that Britain will not agree to extending the transition period with the European Union.
Britain has repeatedly refused to countenance any extension to the talks into next year, saying if there is to be a trade deal, it needs to be done before Dec. 31. If there is no agreement, Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said Britain will "prosper" if it has to trade with the EU on WTO terms.
"The transition period ends on Dec. 31. As the UK has always made clear, this date will not be extended," said the official.
According to the report from Eurostat, in October 2020, industrial producer prices rose by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU, compared with September 2020. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase in the euro area. In September 2020, prices increased by 0.4% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU.
In October 2020, compared with October 2019, industrial producer prices decreased by 2.0% in both the euro area and the EU.
Industrial producer prices in the euro area in October 2020, compared with September 2020, increased by 1.4% in the energy sector and by 0.1% for intermediate goods, capital goods and non-durable consumer goods, while prices remained stable for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.1%.
In the EU, industrial producer prices increased by 0.8% in the energy sector, by 0.2% for intermediate goods and by 0.1% for capital goods and non-durable consumer goods, while prices remained stable for durable consumer goods. Prices in total industry excluding energy increased by 0.1%.
According to the report from Eurostat, in October 2020, the euro area seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 8.4%, down from 8.5% in September 2020 and up from 7.4% in October 2019. The EU unemployment rate was 7.6% in October 2020, stable compared with September 2020 and up from 6.6% in October 2019.
Eurostat estimates that 16.236 million men and women in the EU, of whom 13.825 million in the euro area, were unemployed in October 2020. Compared with September 2020, the number of persons unemployed decreased by 91 000 in the EU and by 86 000 in the euro area. Compared with October 2019, unemployment rose by 2.186 million in the EU and by 1.692 million in the euro area.
In October 2020, 3.115 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU, of whom 2.551 million were in the euro area. In October 2020, the youth unemployment rate was 17.5% in the EU and 18.0% in the euro area, up from 17.4% and 17.9% respectively in the previous month. Compared with September 2020, youth unemployment increased by 46 000 in the EU and by 29 000 in the euro area. Compared with October 2019, youth unemployment increased by 404 000 in the EU and by 319 000 in the euro area
Reuters reports that according to a senior EU diplomat who was present at the closed-door briefing, the European Union's Brexit negotiator told the 27 national envoys to Brussels on Wednesday that differences in UK trade talks persisted.
"Differences still persist on the three main issues," the diplomat said, when asked for the overall thrust of Barnier's update to EU member states on the latest in Brexit trade talks.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group note USD/CNH could drop further on a breach of the 6.5319 level in the next weeks.
Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held the same view for a week wherein USD ‘is in a consolidation and could trade between 6.5400 and 6.6200 for a period of time’. USD weakened sharply yesterday (01 Dec) and is approaching the bottom of the range at 6.5400. Downward momentum is beginning to improve but is not strong for now. USD has to stage a NY closing below the year-to-date low of 6.5319 in order to indicate that the next down-leg towards 6.4960 has started. The prospect for such a move is not high for now but it would increase as long a USD does move above 6.5800 within these few days.”
Reuters reports that Britain on Wednesday became the first western country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine, jumping ahead of the United States and Europe.
The vaccine will be rolled out from early next week in a major coup for Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government, which has faced criticism over its handling of the coronavirus crisis.
A vaccine is seen as the best chance for the world to get back to some semblance of normality amid a pandemic which has killed nearly 1.5 million people and upended the global economy.
"The government has today accepted the recommendation from the independent Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) to approve Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine for use," the government said.
Britain touted the approval as a global win and a ray of good hope amid the gloom as big powers race to approve an array of vaccines and inoculate their citizens.
eFXdata reports that CIBC Research expects shallow GBP rallies after a potential Brexit trade deal.
"As the clock ticks down, the question remains: Is there sufficient time left to conclude a deal? We still expect a deal to be reached, but we will need to see a degree of statecraft (political concessions) in order," CIBC notes.
"Our central case scenario remains a deal being brokered before month end, notably ahead of the final scheduled EU Parliament session of the year, from December 14-17. However, a deal is not the end of the process. Rapid ratification, within necessary protocols, risks becoming a concern," CIBC adds.
FXStreet reports that FX Strategists at UOB Group said that a breakdown of 0.7330 would indicate that the positive phase in AUD/USD could be over.
Next 1-3 weeks: “We highlighted yesterday that a break of 0.7413 would shift the focus to 0.7455. However, AUD retreated quickly from high of 0.7408. Upward momentum has been dented and a break of 0.7330 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the positive phase that started in mid-November has run its course. Barring a sudden surge above 0.7413 within these 1 to 2 days, a break of 0.7330 would not be surprising.”
|00:00||Australia||RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks|
|00:30||Australia||Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||Quarter III||-6.3%||-4.5%||-3.8%|
|00:30||Australia||Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)||Quarter III||-7%||2.5%||3.3%|
|07:00||Germany||Retail sales, real adjusted||October||-2.2%||1.2%||2.6%|
|07:00||Germany||Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y||October||7%||5.9%||8.2%|
|07:30||Switzerland||Consumer Price Index (MoM)||November||0%||-0.1%||-0.2%|
|07:30||Switzerland||Consumer Price Index (YoY)||November||-0.6%||-0.5%||-0.7%|
During today's Asian trading, the US dollar traded steadily against the euro and rose against the yen.
The exchange rate of the US currency against the euro has been at a minimum since April 2018. The ICE index, which tracks the dollar's performance against six currencies (the euro, swiss franc, yen, canadian dollar, pound sterling and swedish krona), fell to its lowest level since April 2018 at the end of trading on Tuesday, given that the euro's weight in the index is about 60%. On Wednesday, the ICE index fell 0.21%.
Growing investor optimism about the economic outlook, driven by the success of a number of pharmaceutical companies in developing COVID-19 vaccines, is contributing to the outflow of investor funds from safe haven assets, which include the dollar, to riskier assets.
In addition, investors are confident that the Federal reserve system will continue to pour money into the economy both by buying assets and by providing cheap loans to banks, given that the situation in the US economy remains difficult amid the second wave of the pandemic, and there are no hopes for the adoption of a new fiscal stimulus package before January.
According to the report from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), the consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in November 2020 compared with the previous month, reaching 101.0 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was –0.7% compared with the same month of the previous year.
The 0.2% decrease compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including falling prices for international package holidays. Hotel accommodation also recorded a price decrease, as did fruiting vegetables. In contrast, prices for housing rentals and foreign red wine increased.
In November 2020, the Swiss Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) stood at 100.09 points (base 2015 = 100). This corresponds to a rate of change of –0.4% compared with the previous month and of –0.8% compared with the same month the previous year. Due to the effects of the pandemic, the same missing price imputation techniques used for the CPI were introduced for the HICP.
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.2078
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options and PUT options with the expiration date December, 4 is 106746 contracts (according to data from December, 1) with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,1200 (6560);
Resistance levels (open interest**, contracts)
Price at time of writing this review: $1.3425
Support levels (open interest**, contracts):
- Overall open interest on the CALL options with the expiration date December, 4 is 23159 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,3500 (2769);
- Overall open interest on the PUT options with the expiration date December, 4 is 42835 contracts, with the maximum number of contracts with strike price $1,2700 (11992);
- The ratio of PUT/CALL was 1.85 versus 1.77 from the previous trading day according to data from December, 1
* - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange bulletin (CME) is used for the calculation.
** - Open interest takes into account the total number of option contracts that are open at the moment.
According to provisional data of the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), turnover in retail trade in October 2020 was in real terms as well as in nominal terms 2.6% (both adjusted for calendar and seasonal influences) higher than in September 2020. Economists had expected a 1.2% increase in real terms.
In October 2020, the turnover in retail rose by 8.2% (real) and 9.4% (nominal) compared to the same month of the previous year. Economists had expected a 5.9% increase in real terms. In comparison to February 2020, the month before the outbreak of Covid 19 in Germany, the turnover in October 2020 was 5.9% (in real terms, calendar and seasonally adjusted) higher.
Retail sales of food, beverages and tobacco were in real terms 7.3% and 10.3% in nominal terms higher in October 2020 than in October 2019. Turnover in retail sale in supermarkets, self-service department shops and hypermarkets was in real terms 7.9% and in nominal terms 10.9% higher than in the same month last year.
In the non-food retail sector, sales in October 2020 rose in real terms by 9.0% and in nominal terms by 9.4% compared with the same month of the previous year. The largest increase in turnover compared with the previous year's month in real terms by 29.8% and 31.1% in nominal terms was achieved by the internet and mail order business. Trade in furniture, household appliances and building materials also increased, with a real plus of 14.2%.
|Raw materials||Closed||Change, %|
|Index||Change, points||Closed||Change, %|
|00:00 (GMT)||Australia||RBA's Governor Philip Lowe Speaks|
|00:30 (GMT)||Australia||Gross Domestic Product (YoY)||Quarter III||-6.3%||-4.5%|
|00:30 (GMT)||Australia||Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)||Quarter III||-7%||2.5%|
|05:00 (GMT)||Japan||Consumer Confidence||November||33.6|
|07:00 (GMT)||Germany||Retail sales, real adjusted||October||-2.2%||1.2%|
|07:00 (GMT)||Germany||Retail sales, real unadjusted, y/y||October||6.5%||5.9%|
|07:30 (GMT)||Switzerland||Consumer Price Index (MoM)||November||0%||-0.1%|
|07:30 (GMT)||Switzerland||Consumer Price Index (YoY)||November||-0.6%||-0.5%|
|10:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Producer Price Index, MoM||October||0.3%||0.2%|
|10:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Producer Price Index (YoY)||October||-2.4%||-2.4%|
|10:00 (GMT)||Eurozone||Unemployment Rate||October||8.3%||8.4%|
|13:15 (GMT)||U.S.||ADP Employment Report||November||365||500|
|13:30 (GMT)||Canada||Labor Productivity||Quarter III||9.8%|
|14:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Williams Speaks|
|15:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Harker Speaks|
|15:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Fed Chair Powell Testimony|
|15:30 (GMT)||U.S.||Crude Oil Inventories||November||-0.754||-2.272|
|18:00 (GMT)||U.S.||FOMC Member Williams Speaks|
|19:00 (GMT)||U.S.||Fed's Beige Book|
|21:30 (GMT)||Australia||AiG Performance of Construction Index||November||52.7|
|21:45 (GMT)||New Zealand||Building Permits, m/m||October||3.6%|
CURRENCY MARKET DEFINITION
The concept of currency market has several definitions:
Simply put, currency market is the market where currency transactions are made, that is, the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of another country at a certain exchange rate. The exchange rate is the relative price of currencies of two countries or the currency of one country expressed in another country's monetary units.
Currency market is part of the global financial market, where many operations related to the global movement of capital take place.
TYPES OF MARKETS. RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY MARKETS
There are international and domestic currency markets.
Domestic currency market — is a market within a single country.
The international currency market — is a global market that covers currency markets of all countries in the world. It does not have a specific site where trading is carried out. All operations within it are carried out through a system of cable and satellite channels that link the world's regional currency markets. Regional markets today include the Asian (with centers in Tokyo, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Melbourne), the European (London, Frankfurt am Main, and Zurich), and the American (New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles) markets.
Currency trading on the international currency market is carried out on the basis of market exchange rates, which are set on the basis of supply and demand in the market and under the influence of various macroeconomic data. Forex is the international currency market.
Currency markets can also be divided into exchange and over-the-counter markets. Exchange currency market is an organized market where trading is carried out through an exchange—a special company that sets trading rules and provides all the conditions for organizing trading under these rules.
Over-the-counter currency market — is a market where there are no certain trading rules, and purchase and sale operations are not linked to a specific place of trade, as opposed to the case of an exchange.
As a rule, an over-the-counter currency market is organized by special companies that provide services for the purchase and sale of currencies, which may or may not be members of the currency exchange. Trading operations in this market are now carried out mainly via the Internet.
The over-the-counter currency market is much larger than the exchange market in terms of trading volume. The Forex international over-the-counter currency market is considered the most liquid in the world. It operates around the clock in all financial centers of the world (from New York to Tokyo).
CURRENCY MARKET FUNCTIONS
Currency market— is the most important platform for ensuring the normal course of all global economic processes.
The main macroeconomic functions of the currency market are:
Various currencies are the main trading tool in the currency market. Exchange rates are formed under the influence of supply and demand in the market.
In addition to that, currency rates are influenced by many fundamental factors related to the global economic situation, events in national economies, and political decisions.
News about these factors can be found in various sources:
The more stable an economy is developing, the more stable its currency is. Accordingly, it is possible to predict how the currency will behave in the near future, based on statistical data published in official sources of countries with a certain regularity.
This data includes:
Interest rate level, set by national authorities regulating credit policy, is an equally important indicator. In the European Union, this is ECB–the European Central Bank, in the US, this is the Federal Reserve System, in Japan—the Bank of Japan, in the UK—the Bank of England, in Switzerland—the Swiss national Bank, etc.
The interest rate level is determined at meetings of the national central bank. Then, the decision on the rate is published in official sources. If the central bank of a country reduces the interest rate, the money supply in the country increases, and the national currency depreciates against other world currencies. If the interest rate increases, the national currency will strengthen.
A speech or even a separate statement by a country's leader can reverse a trend. Speeches on these topics may change the currency exchange rate:
All this news is published in various sources. Major international news is more or less easy to find in Russian, but news related to the domestic economic policy and the economy of foreign countries is much less common in the Russian press. Mostly, such news is published by the national media and in the language of the country where the news is published.
It is very difficult for one person to follow all the news at once, and they are likely to miss some important event that can turn the whole situation on the market upside down. Guided by our main principle—to create the best trading conditions for our customers—we try to select the most important news from all over the world and publish them on our website.
The TeleTRADE Department of Analytics monitors news on most national and international news sources on a daily basis and identifies those that can potentially affect exchange rates. These are the main news items that are included in our news feed.
In addition, all our clients have free access to the Dow Jones news feed. This is a joint project of Dow Jones Newswires, the world's largest news agency, and the leading Russian news agency Prime-TASS. The news feed is created specifically for currency traders and those who are interested in getting information about the world's currency markets.
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