Yields in the gilt market are extraordinarily low
Trends over many years have pushed down rates
We are not actively planning for negative rates
We are using tried and test policies such as QE
Important to stress that negative rates are now in the toolbox
Financial structure is a key conditionality for negative rates
BOE can support the transition by keeping rates low
Massive programme of asset purchases has been the right thing to do.
Central bank independence should not be called into question by COVID-19.
Financial system mustn’t become reliant on these extraordinary levels of central bank reserves.
Current scale of central bank reserves mustn’t become a permanent feature.
Elevated balance sheets could limit the room for manoeuvre in future emergencies.
As economies recover, it’s likely that some of the exceptional monetary stimulus will need to be withdrawn, including by reducing reserves.
CNBC reports that according to Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent, the U.K. may be headed toward negative interest rates at impending Bank of England monetary policy meetings.
The BOE's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hold interest rates at a historic low of 0.1% last Thursday, having cut rates twice from 0.75% since the start of the coronavirus pandemic.
"The committee are certainly prepared to do what is necessary to meet our remit with risks still to the downside," Broadbent told CNBC on Tuesday.
"Yes, it is quite possible that more monetary easing will be needed at the time."
Along with the two previous rate cuts, the Bank has also announced £200 billion of new quantitative easing, bringing its bond buying program to a total of £645 billion.
We will continue to come up with appropriate responses
BOE is clearly committed to take action when needed
Appropriate that BOE continues with aggressive pace of QE for the moment
We will take stock of that, there's still another meeting before QE completion
Information about lifting lockdown measures will be material to June discussions
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. In that context, its challenge is to respond to the severe economic and financial disruption caused by the spread of Covid-19.
At its meeting ending on 6 May 2020, the MPC voted unanimously to maintain Bank Rate at 0.1%.
The Committee voted by a majority of 7-2 for the Bank of England to continue with the programme of £200 billion of UK government bond and sterling non-financial investment-grade corporate bond purchases, financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, to take the total stock of these purchases to £645 billion.
Two members preferred to increase the target for the stock of asset purchases by an additional £100 billion at this meeting.
The spread of Covid-19 and the measures to contain it are having a significant impact on the United Kingdom and many countries around the world.
Activity has fallen sharply since the beginning of the year and unemployment has risen markedly.
Economic data have continued to be consistent with a sudden and very marked drop in global activity.
Oil prices have been volatile.
There have, however, been tentative signs of recovery in domestic spending in China, and this is likely to be echoed in other countries that have started to relax Covid-related restrictions on economic activity.
Financial markets have recovered somewhat over recent weeks and risky asset prices have picked up from their lows in mid-March. This in part reflects the actions taken by authorities in the United Kingdom and elsewhere. Global financial conditions have, nevertheless, remained tighter than prior to the outbreak of Covid-19.
The timeliest indicators of UK demand have generally stabilised at very low levels in recent weeks, after unprecedented falls during late March and early April.
Payments data point to a reduction in the level of household consumption of around 30%.
Consumer confidence has declined markedly and housing market activity has practically ceased.
CPI inflation declined to 1.5% in March and is likely to fall below 1% in the next few months, in large part reflecting developments in energy prices.
Growth has slowed markedly over the last year, both overseas and here.
In the UK, the economy has barely grown since the first quarter of last year and the YoY growth in GDP has fallen below 1% for the first time since 2012
It probably will be appropriate to maintain an expansionary monetary policy and also to possibly cut rates further
Neutral level of interest rates may have fallen further over the last year or two
Monetary policy space is limited
Risk considerations favour a relatively prompt, aggressive response to downside risks
Most likely outlook is a further period of subdued growth
Brexit uncertainty may continue, weigh further on the economy
Bank of England policymaker Silvana Tenreyro said she will be inclined to vote for a cut in interest rates, if the economy does not pick up this year as the central bank forecast in November.
The BoE's forecasts assumed that the Britain would move towards a deep free trade agreement with the EU this year, and that the recent global economic uncertainty quickly unwound.
"The risks to these assumptions are largely to the downside," Tenreyro said in a speech at the Resolution Foundation think tank in London.
"If uncertainty over the future trading arrangement or subdued global growth continue to weigh on demand, then my inclination is towards voting for a cut in Bank Rate in the near term," she continued.
Structural forces unrelated to monetary policy are likely to keep rates low
BOE unlikely to be able to cut rates as it did in the previous downturn
BOE analysis rules out taking rates into negative territory
Does not believe that a recession is overdue
Not much room for the UK gilt yields to fall much further, so more QE unlikely to provide much more stimulus.
BOE firepower is less than before previous recessions.
If you change BOE 2% inflation target, could create higher perceived risk that it will be changed again in future.
Helicopter money could put central bank independence at risk.
delay in Brexit deadline to October will have a negative impact on investments.
Investment already feeling the consequences of uncertainty.
If Brexit deal is struck, there could be quite a strong rebound in investment.
any BOE rate hikes will be gradual.
Haven't decided whether to apply to succeed Carney as BoE Governor.
UK has missed out on 2-3 year of business investment on Brexit
smooth Brexit transition would probably boost investment
Brexit deal would help economic outlook
series of repeated Brexit cliff edges could cause investment to be subdued for a while
UK real incomes have picked up in past year
UK neutral rate is a lot lower than in the past
estimates neutral rate is about 2%
I would expect interest rates will go a bit higher over time, but it won’t be far of fast
appropriate pace of monetary tightening is somewhat slower than I judged it to be a year ago
on balance, after no-deal Brexit likely to keep policy on hold or ease
direction of rate moves after no-deal Brexit will be trade off between supporting economy and stopping temp inflation overshoot
will provide all stimulus possible after no-deal Brexit, subject to price stability
fundamentals of the UK economy are sound
Brexit creating tensions for consumers, businesses
no-deal Brexit will be inflationary
BOE won't reduce QE holdings until rate reaches at least 1.50%
if Brexit deal is done, around one quarter-point rate hike a year is reasonable central case
in no-deal Brexit scenario, an easing or extended pause in monetary policy more likely to be appropriate than tightening
degree of future monetary tightening will in part depend on how large sterling’s appreciation after a Brexit deal is
signs of economic slowdown in early 2019 means a lot needs to go right for this forecast to come to pass
I can probably wait for evidence of growth stabilising, inflation pressure rising before considering rate hike
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